Correct club selection requires an understanding of elements and variables.
The elements are:
Cold or hot
Uphill or down
Windy or calm
Elevation in relation to sea level
Humidity
Variables
Knowing Carry distance in perfect conditions so one can adapt for not perfect days
Quality of lie
Carry and Roll
How are you swinging that day?
Area one is hitting to; small or big
The elements and variables above give a good overview of what needs to be considered when choosing a club. Most often the wrong club selection is made by amateur golfers because of temperature and squareness of contact.
The temperature has the biggest impacts on distance. The colder the weather the shorter the carry and the warmer, the farther the ball will carry. Secondly, golfers tend to grab a club that if they hit it perfect, they have enough club. Statistically, the chances of hitting a perfect shot is about 1/15. Grab an extra club so you don’t have to be so perfect.